THe super PAC supporting Marco Rubio sent donors a memo arguing that Donald Trump can be defeated and asking for donations. The memo casts Rubio as Harry Potter taking on Voldemort.
In Harry Potter lore, Voldemort, the Dark Lord, had a secret to his strength. His secret was his horcruxes. The horcruxes were objects that allowed Voldemort to maintain immortality. As each horcrux was destroyed, Voldemort became increasingly vulnerable, not increasingly strong. When all of the horcruxes were gone, Voldemort lost his one-on-one battle with Harry Potter.
Donald Trump has a solid claim on one-third of the Republican vote. He has virtually no claim on the other two-thirds. The data consistently and overwhelmingly shows Trump with the highest unfavorables among the remaining candidates, and that he is the last choice of more voters than any other Republican by far. That means Trump’s support will grow very little as the field continues to narrow. His 33% is formidable when the field is large; it isn’t when the field is small. Trump won a victory in South Carolina, but the field shrank once again. Like Voldemort’s horcruxes, the large candidate field shields Trump from harm. At each step of the primary process, Trump is losing his shields, and that is making him more vulnerable.
This phenomenon is unlike anything we’ve seen before. In the years in which they won the GOP nomination, when Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney started racking up successive primary victories, they faced no similar barriers because they were not disliked by very large numbers within the party. Even if Trump continues to win on March 1, he will remain vulnerable as the field continues to shrink.
Extending this analogy puts Marco Rubio in the role of Harry Potter.
A recent NBC/WSJ poll shows Rubio besting Trump 57-41. Small wonder Trump is pulling a Voldemort-like smear on Rubio’s eligibility to be president.